After one of the most exciting special elections in Massachusetts history, I couldn’t help but contemplate exactly how much the media had to do with the the results. Martha Coakley, the favored Democrat, was simply waiting to dot the i’s and cross the t’s in a layup election when a rogue Republican entered the race with a bang. Who is Scott Brown and when did he enter this race? When the election results came in they shook Mass. and made a big statement in Washington. The results were so surprising, in fact, that the company in charge of setting up the exit polls opted not to because this was supposed to be a landslide in Coakley’s favor. Now this decision was obviously made weeks in advance of the election. Could these results have been predicted by perhaps studying the amount of content produced about each candidate?
There’s only one way to find out, and I will hopefully be able to show you a unique trend in media buzz surrounding Scott Brown during the couple weeks leading into election day. My guess is we will see a picture-perfect hockey-stick graph.
And…
Now I haven’t laced up the skates in quite awhile, but that blue line looks pretty obvious. I have also included Martha Coakley’s numbers in there as well. Totaling them up Scott Brown creamed Martha Coakley 1223 – 593. The most interesting thing this graph shows us is that once Scott Brown got the momentum in his favor he never looked back. Martha’s numbers are interesting because they are inconsistent and all over the place. Even when President Obama was in Boston rallying for Coakley the numbers had already tailed off, and there was nothing she could do to stop the slide.
So, could you have predicted a victory in Brown’s favor? It’s possible; but more important you would have seen enough action from both sides to make sure the exit polls were set up and that this was going to be a tight one.
